The Key Race System
As promised I will try and post some relatively informative articles which hopefully give some insight into how to spot some value without following the crowd. I will link this thread to any relevant threads and articles along the way such as my Speed Ratings blog and will then hopefully progress to linking these articles to the more complicated issues and future articles of forming your own markets.
The premise of this article will be to show you how I would go about looking for a value selection to follow later in the year and that may also be capable of springing a suprise or two along the way.
We will start with a sample Key Race which was a NHF race run on the 27th of April at Punchestown.
The result was as follows: Lone Wolf 1st, All For Joy 2nd and Fontley House 3rd the beauty of this race is that none of the three first past the post have gone on to run again so hopefully the old enemy (The Bookmaker) will not have taken a huge interest in the race to date.
However both the 4th horse home YouRaised Me Up and Boot Camp who came 5th both went on to win next time out and the 6th horse home Willing was pulled up but having be adjudged to having been clinically abnormal after the race can be excused the run. The 7th horse home was the beaten favourite and may well have attracted some attention so we will bypass this one for the time being. The 8th placed horse although not setting the world alight has done little wrong and the 10th horse home has gone on to win and be placed twice.
Now we get to fun part the 9th horse home was First Approach the 11th horse home was Aforementioned and the 12th horse home was Southern Nights the rest of the field was to all intents and purposes at no time really in contention. The three horses highlighted have several things in common they were all giving weight to most of their rivals they all hail from decent yards and are all lightly raced five year olds. Two have winning or creditable PTP form and the last has already been placed over hurdles.
The hope now is that although obviously the first three home especially Lone Wolf (who won with what looked like a little in hand) will probably go on to win again I am hoping that the above mentioned selections (which I have posted in Rob’s Tracker thread) will run first before the game is up and there is still some value to be had. I believe it would be worth keeping a close eye on these three especially when going back over the hurdles or jumps. This idea of looking for Key Races is not new the odds compilers do it all the time but I hope the spin I have put on it will give you some food for thought along the way.
24/09/2018 @ 7:05 PM
Well with First Approach being declared in the 5.20 at Downpatrick this Friday I guess the theory is about to be put to the test. I will wait until a little closer to the date to see if he stays in the race then the most obvious thing I can think to do is compile a brief list of Speed Ratings for all of the runners so as to link this article with the aforemntioned topic.
I will be posting a Blog/Article on forming a market but it might be a bit to soon to start linking all three topics together but I will see how it goes.
nb: First Aproach became a non runner so obviously we just have to sit tight on this race for now.
01/10/2018 @ 1:30 PM
The second race of interest I wish to highlight is the 5.30 at Listowel which was run on the 12th September this year and to date hardly any of the runners have raced again. However as two of the field (albeit not strong fancies) are declared today in the 3.40 at Roscommon I thought I would post it straight away for those keen to see how the system does or does not unfold.
The race in question is unlike the other one being very much a blank canvas with nothing as yet to prove it’s worth but gives me an ideal opportunity to show you how I selected the race.
The race was run in a decent time and had in it Debuchet who is known to me to be a decent performer having who had been running competitvely in Grade 1 hurdle races had also finished second in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham and although beaten into fourth on this occasion ran a decent race. Most of the other runners that finished there or thereabouts were previous NHF race and or PTP winners and represented the likes of Willie Mullins and Henry De Bromhead etc which indictes that the race was a quality affair.
Quick Grabim won the race readily and is likely to be a major player later in the year the second home was Bakmaj with Only Whispers third these three were followed home by Debuchet who was the known quantity so my interest will lie with the following list of runners.
Spyglass Hill 5th home on the day but who will attract attention being from the De Bromhead yard.
Whatsyourtstatus 6th lost by neck next time out so his cover is probably blown.
However for my tracker list I will be adding Toulson 7th Pass Hymn 8th Crimson Chief 9th Strong Current 10th and Owl Creek Bridge 11th the other two home Dunkereen and Native Place finished to far behind to be included but I will be interested to see what happens to them.
Obviously this race is still in the speculative stage and a lot will depend on how the form starts to work out but as Strong Current and to a lesser degree Native Place both run in the 3.40 at Roscommon this afternoon I thought it worth an early mention. Both the aforementioned runners are 100-1 plus shots for this afternoons race and although I am not holding my breath on this occasion a decent run of either of them would be a small start in the right direction.
03/10/2018 @ 6:18 PM
Well Strong current was backed on the 100-1 thread each way at 40-1 for 7 places and scraped home in seventh which kept the idea alive. Toulson is now declared tomorrow in the 2.05 at Clonmel and I am taking that one tonight at 14-1 each way as a standard bet tonight in case he shortens up in the morning.
Update: Toulson was backed down (mainly due to the favourite being a non runner) from 14-1 to a ridiculous 10-11 then drifted right out just before the off to 100-30 and promptly pulled up half way round. ???
05/10/2018 @ 9:09 PM
I have just the one runner tomorrow for the thread which is Pass Hymn who goes in the 1.55 at Gowran Park and is showing at a tempting looking 10-1. The theory is that no one has spotted that this one as he came up against a hatful of useful prospects last time out and on his previous outing although finishing in seventh five of the six that beat him home that day have gone on to win.
Update: Pass Hymn unfortunately was brought down by another horse at the third and although looked to be travelling well it was too soon to tell how the race would have unfolded.
However over the next few days First Approach runs tomorrow but has been spotted and looks a little short in price. Crimson Chief goes on Tuesday but unfortunately if Bakmaj goes in the same race I will be looking for a decent each way option as Bakmaj looks the real deal. The horse that beat both these home from the Key Race in question was Quick Grabim who ran out a comfortable winner today and has franked the form of the race.
08/10/2018 @ 7:47 PM
Well that was a good day at the office for the articles in general with First Approach winning the 5.20 at Tipperary and although I missed the 3-1 on offer I did get the 11-4 before he shortend up.
The bonus on the day was getting one placed in the 100-1 shot’s thread and the reason for mentioning that here is that tomorrow’s selection for this thread is Crimson Chief but as he is currently trading at 100-1 he will be used on that thread. The reason for this is that he reopposes Bakmaj who as mentioned in the Key Race articles above looks to be the real deal and should not be opposed.
A good performance would still be expected but for this thread I will be looking to back him using the each way extra option.
Update: Crimson Chief came in sixth and made some money for the 100-1 thread and Bakmaj ran a cracker to come second only being beaten by very decent looking sort and I am more than happy with the way the thread is working out.
18/10/2018 @ 1:23 PM
Crimson Chief comes out again today and as mentioned in Rob’s horse tracker thread I will be taking this one at the 10-1 on offer as a standard each way bet.
Update: Crimson Chief was beaten by a head in the 1.35 at Tramore and may have been a tad unlucky in that respect having collided with another runner when jumping the last but a 10-1 place gives another return and once again (I believe) has franked the form of this particular Key Race.
26/10/2018 @ 10:11 PM
Owl Creek Bridge comes out tomorrow in the 1.35 at Galway is available at 100-1 and although unlikley to win should be taken as an each way extra option. Strong Current a previous money spinner for this thread runs in the same race should continue to improve and being available at 66-1 once again will probably not be hitting the winners enclosure but is still worth an each way extra or possibly a bet without the favourites.
Update: Owl Creek Bridge was not that fluent and unforunatley Strong Current was reported to have broken a blood vessel hence his going backwards at the end so I will put this one down as a negative but with some reservations.
01/11/2018 @ 9:39 PM
First Approach although having already won for the thread now comes out over hurdles tomorrow in the 12.40 at Down Patrick and I think could well be a decent prospect in this sphere.
Owl Creek Bridge is declared in the 3.40 at Fairyhouse on Tuesday and having shown nothing to date but now going into handicap company for the first time I will be looking with interest to see what price he is availble at the night before.
02/11/2018 @ 10:15 PM
First Approach duly won albiet at 10-11 but was taken at 11-10 and as predicted looked impressive when doing so. He has now made it two wins for the thread and once again has franked the form of the Key Race in question. This leaves me hoping that when the other two runners Aforemnetioned and Southern Nights come out soon and we can do the clean sweep on the first race.
25/11/2018 @ 8:33 AM
First Approach comes out again today and although having already proved the point by winning twice for the thread since being highlighted it would be nice to see how far this one can go as he is starting to look like a possible Cheltenham entry at the longer trip.
Aforementioned comes out for the first time at Punchestown on Wednesday and hopefully having not been seen for a while might slip under the radar and be worth an early check pricewise the night before.
I have Owl Creek Bridge declared on Thursday but again would probably be worth checking out as an each way extra option until he picks his feet up.
30/11/2018 @ 8:34 PM
First Approach only managed fourth this time but is still one to follow and as mentioned has already won twice for the thread. From the same race Aforementioned ran his first race since being mentioned in said race and duly obliged with plenty in hand so I am thinking the first Key Race can be put to bed now as being succesful. ? However it would be nice if Southern Nights could do the honours and make it a full house. ?
1st December Update:
As a brief update Lone Wolf the original winner of the first Key Race just came out for his first run since the race was highlighted and he also won. Therefore although I will still be looking for Southern Nights comeback run just in case the old enemy overlook this one I thought I would see what happened to those that finished further down the field in the original race.
Myth Buster who was well adrift in 13th place came third less than a length off the winner and Dorrels Perji went on to win five of his next 6 races. ! Maybe next time I will look a further down the field. ?
28/12/2018 @ 8:08 PM
Well Southern Nights finally came out today but looked in need of the run which was refelcted by the huge drift in the markets from 3-1 to 8-1 before the off.
However as sweet compensation Owl Creek Bridge came out and won at 20-1 (price advised on the Daily Chat thread) which is what this Key Race system was all about. This bodes well for Crimson Chief who runs at Tramore on Tuesday but being that race is in the new year I may well total the thread for the first two races before that run.
28/05/2019 @ 3:22 PM
The sensible thing to do here was to finish on the last 20-1 (advised price) winner Owl Creek Bridge and having proved the point put the blog to rest. However I have started to use the idea on the Daily Racing Chat and as it has attracted some interest I feel honour bound to pick this blog up again.
The race we had been discussing on the Daily Racing Chat was the 3.05 at Wexford on the 27th April this race was highlighted when Effornock Fizz won the other day at 66-1 (this horse had been noted previously on the Daily Racing Chat). On tracking the horses form back it was noted that Effornock Fizz had been placed 8th in the aforementioned Wexford race and that the winner had gone in again. The second horse home that day was Zoffalee who although only finishing fourth had run well next time out in a much tougher race.
Hence with Zoffalee running again in a weaker race it was worth a punt that he would win and would hopefully prove my suspicions that the Wexford race would prove to be a Key race. Zoffalee duly won going away which leaves us with a few runners to look at from the Wexford race that have yet to run again that just may be worth putting in your notebooks.
The horse that ran into third that day was Our Jerry but the bookies may well have noted this one and the same may apply to Rathbridge Prince who finished 4th so you may find the prices a little short when they re-appear. However and of more interest to me initially would be Josephina who finished 5th and Hithcock who finished 6th both were giving weight to the previously mentioned winners and have only had a dozen runs between them over hurdles so further improvement is a distinct possibility.
The 7th home that day was Lilly Geal who has been mentioned previously in the 100-1 shot thread so is already in my crosshairs. Last but by no means least 9th home in that race was Impressive Duke and obviously I am hoping that at least one of the last two mentioned may have avoided the old enemies radar and may crop up as lively each way outsiders somewhere along the way.
20/06/2019 @ 6:31 PM
Fortunately (with reference to the previous post) I have never been that sensible and Zoffalee, Our Jerry and Impressive Duke have already gone on to win. Notably Our Jerry at 6-1 and Impressive Duke at 11-2 (but tipped up on here the night before at 11-1). I will leave this thread alone for a while as with the re-vamped site now in place I hope to start a Ten To follow type of thread using this thread as its base but hopefully taking it one step further.