As promised I will try and post some relatively informative articles which hopefully give some insight into how to spot some value without following the crowd. I will link this thread to any relevant threads and articles along the way such as my Speed Ratings blog and will then hopefully progress to linking these articles to the more complicated issues and future articles of forming your own markets.
The premise of this article will be to show you how I would go about looking for a value selection to follow later in the year and that may also be capable of springing a suprise or two along the way.
We will start with a sample Key Race which was a NHF race run on the 27th of April at Punchestown.
The result was as follows: Lone Wolf 1st, All For Joy 2nd and Fontley House 3rd the beauty of this race is that none of the three first past the post have gone on to run again so hopefully the old enemy (The Bookmaker) will not have taken a huge interest in the race to date.
However both the 4th horse home YouRaised Me Up and Boot Camp who came 5th both went on to win next time out and the 6th horse home Willing was pulled up but having be adjudged to having been clinically abnormal after the race can be excused the run. The 7th horse home was the beaten favourite and may well have attracted some attention so we will bypass this one for the time being. The 8th placed horse although not setting the world alight has done little wrong and the 10th horse home has gone on to win and be placed twice.
Now we get to fun part the 9th horse home was First Approach the 11th horse home was Aforementioned and the 12th horse home was Southern Nights the rest of the field was to all intents and purposes at no time really in contention. The three horses highlighted have several things in common they were all giving weight to most of their rivals they all hail from decent yards and are all lightly raced five year olds. Two have winning or creditable PTP form and the last has already been placed over hurdles.
The hope now is that although obviously the first three home especially Lone Wolf (who won with what looked like a little in hand) will probably go on to win again I am hoping that the above mentioned selections (which I have posted in Rob’s Tracker thread) will run first before the game is up and there is still some value to be had. I believe it would be worth keeping a close eye on these three especially when going back over the hurdles or jumps. This idea of looking for Key Races is not new the odds compilers do it all the time but I hope the spin I have put on it will give you some food for thought along the way.