Playing The Markets
Hi
After recommending Frodon yesterday in the Beat The Lotto thread yesterday I was asked why I did not tip up more shorter priced fancied horses as opposed to my usual long shots and each way extra bets.
The simple answer is that I started this site to have some fun and show people that there are other ways to place bets by thinking outside the box and have some fun along the way. Hence topics such as the Cheltenham Countdown and the 100-1 Shots threads which are linked into this blog will hopefully help to point out some of the fun options available to punters. The principle behind playing the odds in the ante post Cheltenham market and for backing the rag (the outsider in the field) is that the odds compilers (the people that form the markets) have a limited amount of time to compile odds and therefore are forced to concentrate on the runners at the head of the market, which leaves the possibility of some value to be found amongst the other runners.
I will now insert a table which I have used for the 3.45 at Punchestown today.
| Runners | Opening Show | Each Way Extra 1/5 odds 10 Places | Settled Market | Betting Without The Favourite | Late Each Way Extra Markets | Late Markets | Starting Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackbow | 2-5 | 1-5 | Favourite | 1-4 | 1-3 | ||
| Santa Rossa | 7-2 | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner | |
| Port Stanley | 12-1 | 7-1 | 2-1 | 6-1 | 4-1 | ||
| Le Musigny | 16-1 | 18-1 | 5-1 | 14-1 | 12-1 | ||
| Nero Rock | 16-1 | 18-1 | 4-1 | 12-1 | 16-1 | ||
| Powerful Ted | 22-1 | 25-1 | 15-2 | 20-1 | 25-1 | ||
| Arkan Quest | 33-1 | 28-1 | 12-1 | 33-1 | 33-1 | ||
| Wavelength | 33-1 | 28-1 | 12-1 | 33-1 | 28-1 | ||
| Bobby Boy | 50-1 | 20-1 | 50-1 | 25-1 | 18-1 | 66-1 | 40-1 |
| Ballydam Destiny | 66-1 | 20-1 | 50-1 | 25-1 | 18-1 | 66-1 | 66-1 |
| The Broghie Man | 66-1 | 25-1 | 50-1 | 25-1 | 16-1 | 66-1 | 33-1 |
| Hardy Man | 100-1 | 25-1 | 80-1 | 33-1 | 18-1 | 100-1 | 50-1 |
| Stowaway To Heaven | 100-1 | 25-1 | 80-1 | 28-1 | 20-1 | 80-1 | 66-1 |
| Get Crackin | 100-1 | 25-1 | 80-1 | 33-1 | 35-1 | 300-1 | 100-1 |
| Sole Trader | 150-1 | 30-1 | 100-1 | 40-1 | 20-1 | 125-1 | 66-1 |
| Midnight Wilde | 150-1 | 30-1 | 100-1 | 50-1 | 22-1 | 150-1 | 66-1 |
| Cleared To Go | 150-1 | 30-1 | 100-1 | 50-1 | 20-1 | 150-1 | 66-1 |
| Alabaster | 200-1 | 35-1 | 150-1 | 66-1 | 25-1 | 200-1 | 66-1 |
| Liam Eile | 200-1 | 35-1 | 150-1 | 66-1 | 35-1 | 300-1 | 100-1 |
| Rebel Gold | 200-1 | 35-1 | 150-1 | 66-1 | 35-1 | 300-1 | 100-1 |
| Funky Dady | 200-1 | 35-1 | 150-1 | 50-1 | 35-1 | 300-1 | 100-1 |
| Roses Queen | 200-1 | 35-1 | 150-1 | 50-1 | 20-1 | 150-1 | 66-1 |
| Seskin Bonnie | 200-1 | 35-1 | 150-1 | 50-1 | 35-1 | 300-1 | 100-1 |
| Loudest Whisper | 200-1 | 35-1 | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner |
| Coolnacritta | 200-1 | 35-1 | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner | Non Runner |
Now the obvious winner here is going to be Blackbow who was available at 1-3 on just before the second favourite Santa Rossa became a non runner. The question is would you have considered Blackbow at 1-3 to be the banker of the day. ? If so surely now with Santa Rossa being a non runner you would have to be thinking that as long as Blackbow stays on his feet (although now 1-5 on) he looks unbeatable especially in the eyes of the odds compilers and of course the old enemy (the bookmakers).
This is where I have a problem as although Blackbow is more than likely going to win this easily I cannot bring myself nor can I afford to take on those sort of odds. Now supposing you were hoping to make a small profit on the day of say two points this would now mean putting ten points on Blackbow to achieve your profit on the day. However if you now look at the extra markets you can either back without the favourite/s or could use the same ten points by backing five of the 100-1 plus selections at the each way extras prices and as long as any two of them get tenth or better you will have made a better profit than you would have backing the favourite and should only one of them get home you will have only have lost a point or two on the day. ?
In conclusion here are some of the options I would recommend having a look at in relation to playing todays markets. As for betting without the favourite the two horses that are the obvious stand outs for me are the 66-1 shots Bobby Boy and The Brogie Man which are now available at 25-1 betting without Blackbow. Then we get down to the tricky part which is trying to find an each way extra bet from the 100-1+ shots and this is speculative but I would suggest in this instance considering Hardy Man and Roses Queen.
14/01/2020 @ 3:14 PM
Hi
Although the bet worked out better than expected as Blackbow could only get fourth place and both of our suggested bets came off, this would not usually be the case as odds on runners win more often than not so please do not bank on this happening on a regular basis.
As it turned out The Broghie Man finished second having been backed down to 33-1 from 66-1 but as we had secured the 25-1 betting without the favourite we would have turned a +2 point profit on the day (after allowing for the bet on Bobby Boy which did not come off).
As for the each way extra bet Roses Queen lost out but Hardy Man again taken at 25-1 managed to beat tenth place so we again would have turned a profit of +2 points on the day.
I would suggest for those of you have grasped the principle it may be worth reading through the highlighted threads in the original post as these have also shown a profit and go a long way to proving that backing the favourite or short priced selections is not always the best option.