Playing The Markets

After recommending Frodon yesterday in the Beat The Lotto thread yesterday I was asked why I did not tip up more shorter priced fancied horses as opposed to my usual long shots and each way extra bets.
The simple answer is that I started this site to have some fun and show people that there are other ways to place bets by thinking outside the box and have some fun along the way. Hence topics such as the Cheltenham Countdown and the 100-1 Shots  threads which are linked into this blog will hopefully help to point out some of the fun options available to punters. The principle behind playing the odds in the ante post Cheltenham market and for backing the rag (the outsider in the field) is that the odds compilers (the people that form the markets) have a limited amount of time to compile odds and therefore are forced to concentrate on the runners at the head of the market, which leaves the possibility of some value to be found amongst the other runners.
I will now insert a table which I have used for the 3.45 at Punchestown today.

Each Way Extra
1/5 odds
10 Places
Settled Market
Betting Without
The Favourite
Each Way Extra
Santa Rossa7-2Non RunnerNon RunnerNon RunnerNon RunnerNon Runner
Port Stanley12-17-12-16-14-1
Le Musigny16-118-15-114-112-1
Nero Rock16-118-14-112-116-1
Powerful Ted22-125-115-220-125-1
Arkan Quest33-128-112-133-133-1
Bobby Boy50-120-150-125-118-166-140-1
Ballydam Destiny66-120-150-125-118-166-166-1
The Broghie Man66-125-150-125-116-166-133-1
Hardy Man100-125-180-133-118-1100-150-1
Stowaway To Heaven100-125-180-128-120-180-166-1
Get Crackin100-125-180-133-135-1300-1100-1
Sole Trader
Midnight Wilde150-130-1100-150-122-1150-166-1
Cleared To Go150-130-1100-150-120-1150-1
Liam Eile200-135-1150-166-135-1300-1100-1
Rebel Gold200-135-1150-166-135-1300-1100-1
Funky Dady200-135-1150-150-135-1300-1100-1
Roses Queen200-135-1150-150-120-1150-166-1
Seskin Bonnie200-135-1150-150-135-1300-1100-1
Loudest Whisper200-135-1Non RunnerNon RunnerNon RunnerNon RunnerNon Runner
Coolnacritta200-135-1Non RunnerNon RunnerNon RunnerNon RunnerNon Runner

Now the obvious winner here is going to be Blackbow who was available at 1-3 on just before the second favourite Santa Rossa became a non runner. The question is would you have considered Blackbow at 1-3 to be the banker of the day. ? If so surely now with Santa Rossa being a non runner you would have to be thinking that as long as Blackbow stays on his feet (although now 1-5 on) he looks unbeatable especially in the eyes of the odds compilers and of course the old enemy (the bookmakers).

This is where I have a problem as although Blackbow is more than likely going to win this easily I cannot bring myself nor can I afford to take on those sort of odds. Now supposing you were hoping to make a small profit on the day of say two points this would now mean putting ten points on Blackbow to achieve your profit on the day. However if you now look at the extra markets you can either back without the favourite/s or could use the same ten points by backing five of the 100-1 plus selections at the each way extras prices and as long as any two of them get tenth or better you will have made a better profit than you would have backing the favourite and should only one of them get home you will have only have lost a point or two on the day. ?

In conclusion here are some of the options I would recommend having a look at in relation to playing todays markets. As for betting without the favourite the two horses that are the obvious stand outs for me are the  66-1 shots Bobby Boy and The Brogie Man which are now available at 25-1 betting without Blackbow. Then we get down to the tricky part which is trying to find an each way extra bet from the 100-1+ shots and this is speculative but I would suggest in this instance considering Hardy Man and Roses Queen.

1 thought on “Playing The Markets”

  1. Hi
    Although the bet worked out better than expected as Blackbow could only get fourth place and both of our suggested bets came off, this would not usually be the case as odds on runners win more often than not so please do not bank on this happening on a regular basis.
    As it turned out The Broghie Man finished second having been backed down to 33-1 from 66-1 but as we had secured the 25-1 betting without the favourite we would have turned a +2 point profit on the day (after allowing for the bet on Bobby Boy which did not come off).
    As for the each way extra bet Roses Queen lost out but Hardy Man again taken at 25-1 managed to beat tenth place so we again would have turned a profit of +2 points on the day.
    I would suggest for those of you have grasped the principle it may be worth reading through the highlighted threads in the original post as these have also shown a profit and go a long way to proving that backing the favourite or short priced selections is not always the best option.

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