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  • #4266
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Hi
    Here are the remaining teams and current bet365 odds for the playoffs.
    Baltimore Ravens 23-10 (29%)
    San Fransico 49’s 4-1 (20%)
    Kansas City Chiefs 9-2 (18%)
    New Orleans Saints 6-1 (14%)
    Green Bay Packers 9-1 (10%)
    New England Patriots 12-1 (8%)
    Seattle Seahawks 25-1 (4%)
    Houston Texans 40-1 (2%)
    Minnesota Vikings 40-1 (2%)
    Philadelphia Eagles 40-1 (2%)
    Tenessee Titans 40-1 (2%)
    Buffalo Bills 60-1 (1%)

    Now although the betting indicates there are only four teams with more than a 10% chance of winning the super bowl (allowing for the bookmakers profit as the odds actually total 112%, which is there built in profit margin).
    However if you had seriously weighed up there chances before seeing the odds (mine are rounded up for conveneience) what percentage chance would you have given these teams of winning and is there another way of looking at betting on the playoffs. ?
    I am going to try a stratedgy that seems a little strange but will initially take 1/2 point on both the Bills at 60-1 and the Texans at 40-1 for tonights first game. I will also take both teams in the last playoff game but take 1 point on the Seahawks at 25-1 with 1/2 a point on the Eagles at 40-1.
    I will then leave the weekends games play and see how the markets change when the results are all in and the next set of matches are announced.

    Does anyone have any insights into the NFL as I am just playing the markets here.

    • This topic was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by adminMike. Reason: Odds updated
    #4269
    Ljr2010Ljr2010
    Participant

    Evening guys, this is my first post and prediction so please go easy on me.

    I’ve watched the NFL every week for the last 15 years, and here’s what I think will unfold in these playoffs.

    In the AFC

    Tonight I wouldn’t take anyone other than the patriots to go through which means due to the seeding they would play the Cheifs automatically. I’d definitely go with Mike on the bills AND texans as that is anyone’s game tonight, bills are on a real high with their defence, but texans have some huge weapons, and if they show up could beat down the Bills who are a little exhausted on offence. In the next round, I’d bet my house on ravens beating either of those teams. With the patriots and Cheifs being possibly the game of the season, patriots beat them last year to reach the superbowl but the chiefs have beaten them this year, only problem for the chiefs is now Bill Belichick for the patriots has had more video for his game plan. Id take the patriots. Then in the semi final I’d take the Ravens who have already bested the patriots once this year with ease. Sadly these being the favourite but it’s for a damn good reason.

    I’ll post about the NFC tomorrow afternoon.

    #4271
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Hi Ljr2010
    Thanks for posting and no worries about putting your opinions on here thats what its for, in fact the more the merrier and besides remember nobody knows your name yet so its a shot to nothing with regards to the site. 🙂
    Lets hope we can get someone else interested alaong the way. 🙂

    #4275
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Hi
    Well we both said the games would be tight and with the Bills and Texans going into overtime it does not get any tighter. The second game was a cracker and with just a point in it with a few seconds to go not making that yard early on was the nail in the Patriots coffin.
    I cannot go in again until both tonights games have been played but at present the revised current odds are as follows.

    Baltimore Ravens 21-10 (30%)
    San Fransico 49’s 15-4 (21%)
    Kansas City Chiefs 4-1 (19%)
    New Orleans Saints 6-1 (14%)
    Green Bay Packers 9-1 (10%)
    Seattle Seahawks 25-1 (4%)
    Houston Texans 30-1 (3%)
    Tenessee Titans 30-1 (3%)
    Minnesota Vikings 35-1 (2%)
    Philadelphia Eagles 35-1 (2%)

    #4276
    Ljr2010Ljr2010
    Participant

    Hi guys,

    Not what I expected at all from that patriots game, but that’s the fun of the playoffs.

    Tonight in the NFC bracket, I’d take the seahawks beating the eagles who have been riddled with injuries and managed to just scrape into the playoffs. With the dual threat of Wilson and Carson on the seahawks front, it just seems very unlikely they will be bested by the eagles.
    In the other game it’s hard to not heavily favour the saints, with Brees coming off a season breaking multiple NFL records as well as his main WR breaking his own records, but if the vikings can get the run game flowing allowing for play action deep pass plays to their fast paced receivers it could be viking victory.

    #4279
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Hi
    Here is a price update using bet365 just to keep some continuity to thread but it is always worth checking out other bookmakers especially sky sports as they can be generous when it comes to American Football.

    Baltimore Ravens 2-1 (33%)
    San Fransico 49’s 10-3 (23%)
    Kansas City Chiefs 7-2 (22%)
    Green Bay Packers 7-1 ((12%)
    Seattle Seahawks 12-1 (8%)
    Minnesota Vikings 14-1 (7%)
    Houston Texans 28-1 (4%)
    Tenessee Titans 28-1 (4%)

    Now this leaves me several options for backing against my initial selections (that are left) and I will update the thread later when the markets have settled after the weekends matches.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 3 weeks ago by adminMike.
    #4296
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Hi
    With Seattle Seahawks still in the mix at a possible profit of +25 points and the Houston Texans holding a possible +20 point profit I have two choices obviously let both the bets ride or back against them to make sure we take this thread on one more notch.
    I have decided that as I am only -1 point down at present I will let the Texans bet ride and hope for the best but as I can get 9-1 on Green Bay with Sky Bet I will place 2 points on them which will leave me a guaranteed option to play against in the semi final.

    #4343
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    I have started a new blog off today entitled Playing The Markets and I have just been handed the perfect opportunity to prove a point tonight as the Texans have just gone 24-0 up in the game against the Kansas City Chiefs. This means instead of just letting the bet ride I can now take a 1 point win on the Chiefs at 16-5 which means if they do manage to stage a comeback I have covered all my bets to date but if as I hope they do not, this means I would have two teams through to the semi finals (both at big odds).
    This is a perfect example of the blog posted today which hopefully will help to explain the premise behind the strategy. 🙂

    #4356
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Hi
    Well that worked out fairly well as the although I would have preferred to have had the Texans win this means that I more or less have more or less a free bet on the Green Bay Packers going into the semi finals which would provide a profit of +18 points should they go on to win the final.
    The way this has worked out is that although I have obviously now lost all of my original 2 and 1/2 point by winning +3.2 points on the Chiefs in the last game I am now in a profit of +0.7 points with a the 2 points bet on the Packers still running.
    Now the obvious thing would be to stop and let the bet ride but I will continue just to show the other options available using the current odds on offer.

    Match Odds
    Tenessee Titans 11-4 Kansas City Chiefs 2-7
    Green Bay Packers 11-4 San Francisco 49ers 2-7

    To Win the Super Bowl
    Kansas City Chiefs 13-10
    San Francisco 49ers 6-4
    Green Bay Packers 13-2
    Tenessee Titans 15-2

    The obvious first option is to back against Green Bay as we did against the Texans but I thought we would try a different option this time.

    If you refer to the other NFL thread on the site NFL Predictor Challenge you will see that we have tried a predictor challenge there and a bet has become available and using the odds available I will try a double on the two predicted scores as follows:
    Kansas Chiefs to win total points under 52.5 6-4
    San Francisco 49ers to win over 45.5 points 13-10
    This double works out at 9-2 and I will play 1 point on the result. I will also take 1 point at 15-2 on the Titans to win the super bowl.
    I may also update this thread if another option becomes available.

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by adminMike. Reason: Price Updates
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