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29/01/2019 at 9:02 PM #115130/01/2019 at 4:37 PM #1153RobmullParticipant
Hi Mike,
This should be a fascinating thread and it will be interesting to view your shortlists for each race that you analyse, as the approach is similar to that which I deploy, albeit I don’t tend to do much until the 5 day entries have been published.
I hope you have plenty of time on your hands, as you may recall that during my time as an OLBG blogger, I produced trends based articles for all of the Grade 1 events, which seemed to take forever, as the figures often changed after each horse ran in it’s prep race.
With regards to your use of trends, I hope you don’t mind me suggesting that it may be beneficial to use data from just the last 10 years, as I have found that using less data tends to improve the likelihood that the trends will identify the winner. The reason being that horse racing is by it’s very nature a dynamic sport, so changes to the sourcing of National Hunt horses, the racing calendar including the festival races and training methods can all impact on the profile of likely winners.
I also found that only shortlisting horses that met all the trends significantly reduced the chance of including the eventual winner, as it was more normal for the victor to have met the majority of the trends, albeit no all of them.
Using your stats for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the mathematical chance of the winner meeting all the trends is just 48.5%, which means that there is more chance of not including the winner in your shortlist than having it in there.
To improve the chance of having the eventual winner in my shortlist, I used to score all of the last 10 winners against the trends and then make a judgement on what should be considered as the minimum score for candidates this year, which is rather time consuming.
However, I have also had some success discarding from the shortlist all horses that failed any of the trends, but adding back any horse that has been tipped as ante post selections by any of the professional pundits who write for the Racing Post, Racing and Football Outlook, Weekender, or Timeform, on the basis that these guys have plenty of experience of analysing races and therefore should know what they are doing – it is part of their job!!
As for target races, I would start with the Championship races where the ante post betting suggests that it is not a one horse event, so the Gold Cup, Ryanair Chase and Stayers’ Hurdle would be prime candidates.
The open handicaps are also worth analysing, but entry volumes are usually so large that it is often better to wait until the 5 day entry stage – perhaps I am just getting lazy in my old age!!
Good luck and I will try to join in when time permits.
All the best.
Rob.
30/01/2019 at 8:03 PM #1155MikeKeymasterHi Rob
This is a long term project which I started last year when I was with OLBG Ireland and as I got lucky there by getting a couple of big priced winners home I have been itching to see if I could get lightning to strike twice..lol. There is a link to the post motrtem page of the old thread here: https://olbg.ie/forum/viewtopic.php?f=74&t=5421&start=60
I am hoping this thread will actuate some wagers on some of the pre cheltenham races that involve those already declared and for sure will be time consuming but hopefully worth it.
The secondary factor is that it will hopefully showcase the Speed Ratings and Key Race articles along the way. There will also be the opportunity to link this thread to some of your systems especially when we get a bit nearer the off and hopefully it should make compelling reading when we get to compare our results on the day.06/02/2019 at 2:04 PM #1196MikeKeymasterHaving re-checked the possibilities available and bearing in mind I am primarily looking at place options bet365 at non runner no bet 1/4 odds on all the above selections would look the obvious choice.
Therefore for this thread I am putting up a the following as my first Cheltenahm accumulator using the following prices as listed in todays lunchtime markets.
Champion Hurdle Sharjah 9-1
Champion Chase Sceau Royal 14-1
Ryanair Chase Aso 16-1
Stayers Hurdle Bapaume 20-1
Gold Cup Might Bite 14-1
I am suggesting 10x 1 point each way doubles and 1 point each way accumulator which means that should any two of the above get placed you would recieve the majority of your outlay back (if not make a small return) dependent on the price of the placed horses.
However should more than two get placed you are already into a decent profit and for the curious dreamers such as myself should all five just get placed the total return would be +1974.38 points. I am talking place options here as this is most likely the best case scenario but for those wishing to check out the win options there is a link to a good bet return calculator in the Reference & Help section listed at the top of the main page under the sub heading of Useful Links.07/02/2019 at 12:02 PM #1210RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
I like your betting strategy and staking plan, as stake returned for just 2 places and profit if selections are more successful is a good position to be in.
If you rate SHARJAH as an each way selection in the Champion Hurdle, then you might wish to consider LEONCAVALLO in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday, if racing is allowed to resume after the Equine Flu scare.
LEONCAVALLO finished 3rd in the Galway Hurdle and that effort has been franked as follows:
Sharjah (Won) – OR now 17 lbs higher after 2 Grade 1 victories.
Bedrock (4th) – OR now 13 lbs higher after victories at G3 and G2 level.
Le Richebourg (5th) – has subsequently won 2 Grade 1 Novice Chases and OR over fences now 19 lbs higher than his hurdle mark.
LEONCAVALLO’s OR is now 3 lbs higher, but booking of 5lb Claimer for Saturday negates that rise, which suggests that he should be of interest from a purely handicapping perspective at around 14/1 for the Betfair Hurdle.
All the best.
Rob.
07/02/2019 at 4:42 PM #1211MikeKeymasterHi Rob
It is a staking plan that works quite well with ante post as a non runner does not decimate the bet and targetting the place part of the bet still leaves the possibilty of a decent win payout should something go amiss with a short priced ante post favourite.
Obviously todays revelations over the equine flu could be one of the factors but lets hope that blows over sooner than later.
I do like the look of your suggestion over Leoncavallo as he fits the Key Race system that you know I am really keen on.
I will continue with this thread as soon as I can get around the hacking issue.11/02/2019 at 12:23 PM #1233MikeKeymasterI will now head back to the first race of the festival and re-list the statistics for the opening race The Supreme Novice Hurdle.
19 of the last 24 winners had run in the last 45 days.
19 of the last 22 winners had won last time out.
13 of the last 15 winners had run over hurdles at least 4 times previously.
15 of the last 17 winners were Irish trained runners.
13 of the last 14 winners were either 5 or 6yo’s.
No horse has ever won the race wearing headgear.
The most obvious difference with the statistical analysis of this race is that previous Cheltenham form is not a requisite.
I had originally been looking at Fakir D’Oudaries due to his Chelthenham form but had been concerned over the short ante post price and will now bearing the above stat in mind put forward Mister Fisher who is still available at 14-1 but the 11-1 nrnb still showing with some firms looks a nice price.
Mister Fisher is not the yards only runner as they have the ante post favourite in Angels Breath however trainer Nicky Henderson has implied on several occasions that there is not that much between them.
It would be fair to say he is not as fluent as some of his rivals but has been improving with every run and could do no more than beat what was in front of him in the Supreme trial and looks likely to come on again.12/02/2019 at 4:15 PM #1237MikeKeymasterThe next race on the card on the opening day at Cheltenham will be the Ultima Handicap and all the handicap races will be dealt with at the end of this thread when the weights have been announced which usually occurs on or about the last few days in February. Therefore I will tackle the OLBG Mares Hurdle next.
I will start with the stats as usual but these are not as accurate as they could be due to the fact the same horse Quevega won the race six times on the bounce.
8/11 winners were aged 5-7
10/11 winners were in the top 3 in the betting
9/11 winners won on their last run before Cheltenham
7/11 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
5/11 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham
10/11 winners had at least 2 previous about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/11 had at least 1 previous win about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/11 winners had at least 5 previous runs over hurdles
9/11 had at least 3 wins over hurdles
9/11 winners had a rating of 150 or higher
8/11 winners had at least previous win in a Grade 1-3 race
Now this looks a daunting task with the likes of Apples Jade Laurina and Benie Des Dieux at the head of the market but with only the last named likely to turn up on the day striking a decent each way ante post bet should be more than possible.
Unless Benie Des Dieux either does not turn up or suffers a mishap it is difficult to see her being beaten but with Stormy Ireland being an unkown quantity and Lady Buttons still holding a Chase option at the festival I will take the 16-1 nrnb on Dan Skelton’s Roksana. This mare has improved with every run to date is a very lightly raced 7yo who was not disgraced behind Buveur D’Air last time out and may have have been laid out with this race in mind and hopefully the yard will have left a little bit up there sleeve for the big occasion.13/02/2019 at 2:42 PM #1243MikeKeymasterThe next two races after the OLBG Mares Hurdle will be another handicap and the Amateur Riders race so I will bypass these two for the time being as they are too complicated to start on at present until the field sizes are reduced or the weights announced.
Thia means I will be heading over to day two of the festival and going straight onto the Ballymore Novice Hurdle for which the statical analysis is as follows:
12/12 winners were aged 5 or 6
9/12 winners ran within the last 60 days
9/12 winners won on their last run
12/12 winners placed on their previous run
11/12 winners had at least 1 win on or about the 2 1/2 mile mark
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous wins over hurdles
10/12 winners were rated 142 or higher
10/12 had at least 3 runs that season
12/12 had at least 1 win that season, 10/12 had at least 2 wins that season
Not having previously run or won at Cheltenham was a negative in this race and the favourites do not have a particularly strong record in this race. the last two points are probabaly due to the fact that this race traditionally has a large field of runners and resembles a cavalry charge at the start.
Brewin’upastorm had taken my fancy some time ago but I am unconvinced of his ability to travel at pace which is a definite requiremant here. So I have reluctantly discarded him and this has left me with two nice options the first was Beakstown who will get the trip and is a better horse when ridden up with a strong pace (as this race will be) and City Island an Irish raider who I have had my eye on for some time.
I will go with City Island 10-1 nrnb as it is difficult to fault the way he won last time out with any amount in hand and having previously beaten Dallas Des Picton who has gone onto to win his next two starts the form is as solid as it gets.13/02/2019 at 4:15 PM #1244RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
We clearly have very different approaches when considering our investments at the Cheltenham Festival, but as the saying goes, “there are many ways to skin a cat”.
My current list of horses of interest consists of 5 entries, albeit this will undoubtedly change over the next month, as I gradually formulate my final shortlist:
CITY ISLAND (10/1)
COMMANDER OF FLEET (14/1)
DOWNTOWN GETAWAY (25/1)
DUNVEGAN (33/1)
JARVEYS PLATE (25/1)
Most of these have shown their best form on G/S, or faster ground, so slower conditions may find them out.
If I had to nail my colours to the mast at this stage, I would probably go with COMMANDER OF FLEET, who already has a Grade 1 win under his belt and seemed to handle Yielding to Soft when comfortably winning a valuable Bumper at the Punchestown Festival last year.
All the best.
Rob.
13/02/2019 at 9:14 PM #1246MikeKeymasterHi Rob
Well considering we sing from different hymn sheets the fact that we have still managed to come up with the same song on several occasions is no mean feat considering the amount of entries we are dealing with at this early stage.
So on I plod and now head for the RSA Chase and it does not get any easier.
As per usual I will start off with the statical analysis which is a follows:
10/12 winners were aged 7
12/12 winners had at least placed on their previous run before Cheltenham
11/12 winners had run was within 40 days
11/12 winners had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham
11/12 winners had at least 2 previous runs over 3 miles
11/12 had at least 1 win over 3 miles
11/12 winners had at least 4 runs over hurdles
12/12 winners had at least 2 wins over hurdles
11/12 winners had at least 3 previous chase runs
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous chase win
11/12 winners were rated 144 or higher
10/12 winners had previously won a grade 1-3 race
11/12 winners had at least 3 runs that season
12/12 had at least 1 win that season
Even though it is a chase race I have once again included previous hurdle form as it does seem to have a bearing on the outcome of the race.
I am going to take a long shot here and hope that Talkischeap who is still available at 33-1 nrnb will do me proud on the day. This one has been running with merit up against the likes of On The Blind Side and Le Bague Au Roi and is still coming along. He jumps well fits the bill nicely and if troubling the judge in the 888 next Saturday could well be a big ante post mover.14/02/2019 at 8:51 AM #1247RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
Our thoughts diverge on this race, as my initial list consists of:
DELTA WORK (7/2)
MORTAL (33/1)
ON THE BLIND SIDE (20/1)
TOPOFTHEGAME (5/1)
I have no preference at this stage and to be honest this is one of the races in which I am least likely to have a bet, albeit it is always informative for the future.
All the best.
Rob.
14/02/2019 at 9:34 AM #1251MikeKeymasterHi Rob
Not really that bad Rob Delta Work is I believe the real deal but just too short in price for the purpose of my betting startedgy (for what it is worth..lol) and On The Blind Side was on my short list. However it will be intersting to see what we come up with when the handicap races come under scrutiny when the weights are announced at the end of the month.I have five selections in place for another wager but am not entirely happy with the price on my second choice Cilaos Emery in the Arkle so will bypass that one and move on to the next race which by bypassing the next two handicaps which brings me to the Champion Bumper.
Here are the statistics to kick the post off in what will be a tricky race to evaluate as this race will often spring a big surprise and its runners are always to follow next season.
11/12 winners were aged 5 or 6
12/12 winners had won last time out
11/12 had a previous win over the trip
10/12 winners had at least 2 previous flat runs
12/12 winners had at least 1 previous flat win
11/12 winners were rated 118 or higher
12/12 winners had at least 1 run and 1 win that season
Cheltenham form has no bearing on this race and the distance raced is obviously a standard so the majority of the runners will have done the trip.
I have a selection to put forward which I will take today as bet365 have now gone non runner no bet on all the races and are offering the biggest price by far on this selection which will be Abacadabras from the Gordon Elliot yard. This one won first time out and then ran out behind a running rail when well in contention behind Envoi Allen (who looks to be the yards main chance in the race).
However as mentiond throughout this thread I am looking for a each way option and I believe the yard will throw several runners at this race and although generally only available ante post at 12-1 with bet365 offering 25-1 this morning I would be a fool not to move on this one today under nrnb.- This reply was modified 5 years, 1 month ago by Mike.
14/02/2019 at 9:37 AM #1253MikeKeymasterThis leaves me in a position to place my second ante post bet for the festival using the following runners all taken at the prices quoted at 1/4 odds non runner on bet.
Supreme Novice Hurdle Mister Fisher 11-1
OLBG Mares Hurdle Roksana 16-1
Ballymore Novice Hurdle City Island 10-1
RSA Chase Talkischeap 33-1
Champion Bumper Abracadras 25-1
This bet is again 10x 1 point each way doubles and a 1 point each way accumulator.14/02/2019 at 1:33 PM #1256RobmullParticipantHi Mike,
This is the first time that I have looked at the Champion Bumper, so I applied the following four trends:
Age 5/6
Won lto
Won Bumper worth at least £/€ 4K
Won Bumper with 13 or more runnersThese trends usually produce a shortlist of 6 or more entries, so I was a bit surprised when only 2 of this year’s entries have made it through these tests:
ENVOI ALLEN (5/1)
SANTA ROSSA (25/1)
ENVOI ALLEN has strong claims and to be honest 5/1 is not a bad price, but the mare SANTA ROSSA is really interesting, based on the fact that she will receive 7lbs from the males and we should not forget that the fairer sex have won the last 2 renewals.
It is also worth noting that she has finished both of her races strongly, which suggests that she will appreciate the stiff uphill finish – whether she wins, or not 25/1 NRNB seems very fair.
All the best.
Rob.
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