100-1 shots can you make a profit. ?

Home Forums and Tips Horse Racing Systems etc 100-1 shots can you make a profit. ?

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  • #431
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    I recieved an e-mail last night telling me that if I wanted people to join (particularly in this case himself) I would have to start taking things a bit more seriously by way of giving out more winning tips and to forget silly bets like the 100-1 punt in the Bournmouth v Palace game tonight. Now the e-mail itself was not quite worded as politely as my version and I certainly got the point…lol. However I am trying to build a site that is serious enough to attract a few pundits but I also believe should be a bit of fun along the way.
    Therefore I will now start a thread that highlights the possibility of making a return by backing 100-1 shots but not neccessarily at the 100-1 on offer. It is probabaly a fools errand but I have always been one to stick my head above the trenches and it may well hopefully encourage other people to have a go and join in ‘you bet you lose that is just a sad fact‘ but as long as you are having fun and a get one in from time to time it’s ok.
    We obviously have the Bournemouth game tonight which although was just to give an example as to the bets possibilities as it has not been played yet I will throw it in here as if nothing else it will make someone else’s day when it comes to grief (I aim to please)…lol.
    For my next attempt I will try another alternate view and also link it to a more serious article the The Key Race System from which the selection is taken (I will update that thread today).
    The race selection is running today in the 3.40 at Roscommon is a 100-1 shot and is called Strong Current has no form and was beaten out of sight by some fifty lengths last time out but will be one to follow on the ‘The Key Race System’. There is another runner from the same race which is a 150-1 shot called Native Place who if she gets any more letters PU PU PU F 0 to her previous form could end up with a short novel…lol. Although this one does not qualify under the system for the purpose of this exercise I will include her in the topic. Having now informed you how bad they both are and that I am not expecting them to win I expect both to improve and by backing them on ‘The Each Way Extra market‘ with Bet 365 you can back Strong Current at 40-1 for 7 places or Native Place at 33-1 for 9 places. This gives you a chance to follow a horse when it is becoming of interest to you (but is not one to shout about…just yet) and will also introduce you to a new type of bet which was one of the ideas behind this site.

    • This topic was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by adminMike.
    • This topic was modified 1 year ago by adminMike.
    #436
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Well I made someone happy today…lol.. when my 100-1 shot on the Bournmouth match did not come off but it was not a disaster with 3 goals 6 cards and 7 corners plus an end to end game which could have gone either way. However maybe I should in future be a little less optimistic when trying these bets out but in my defense as stated when I placed the bet the idea was to show the potential of the bet and to have some fun along the way.
    As for the more serious side of the idea the 100-1 shot Strong Current that was taken at 40-1 for 7 places using ‘The Each way Extra Market’ got placed for a small return of 7 points and after taking out the Bournmouth bet out leaves us with a small profit on the day which will help to start the thread off.

    #438
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    I have the day off today so cannot resist the temptation to have another bash at another 100-1 shot this time in the Juventus game tonight. The bet revolves in truth about whether or not Sami Khedira will play or not but you pays your money your takes your chances. The bet consists of Juventus to rip the visitors apart from the off scoring 4 or more goals in the game there are to be more goals in the first half than the second and there are to be more than 4 cards in the game. The key point is Khedira playing and scoring in the game but if you believe as I do Juventus are going to take the visitors apart in a one sided game then if Khedira plays with Ronaldo being suspended the bet might be worth a second glance.

    Update: Khedira only came on with twenty minutes to go and therefore although Juventus dominated and found the net 3 times the bet was a realistically a non starter.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by adminMike.
    #452
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    As I am still just ahead of the game I will return to the racing scene for this one which is Getgo in the 1.55 at Gowran Park tomorrow. Getgo ran a decent hurdles debut a while back but had a sharpener on the flat last week and at 100-1 is one to keep on the right side of. Both the market leaders in this race are hurdling debutants and are not guaranteed to perform first time up so a tentative each way shout is the call tonight with a possible update on the bet when the alternate markets are priced up in the morning.
    nb: With the probability that two of the first three home will be from the first three in the market taking Getgo at 25-1 for seven places looks the sensible solution here.
    Update: Coming off the final bend 7th place was looking good but unfortunately Getgo slipped back into 8th place when easing down as they so often do when not in contention.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by adminMike.
    • This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by adminMike.
    #487
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Having had a tickle on the Bet Builder thread and having a few points to spare I will try another long shot scenario bet today in the Fulham v Arsenal game which has the potential to be a very competative affair. Assuming he plays this one is based around Granit Xhaha and him being booked he is usually involved in everything Arsenal do and has already had his share of cards this season. So the bet is Xhaha to be booked + Over 4 cards in the match + A Red card in the match then either Fulham to win from behind at 400-1 or Arsenal to win from behind at 200-1. By taking both options at 1/2 point you would still have a cracking payout should either come off.

    Update: Well a six goal game and a couple of cards but it was to one sided to be competative.
    However I will try and update the prices on a few that I have my eye on for the thread tomorrow (for which I will be looking for Each Way prices). The runners are as follows Out Of The Blue and or The Mcgregornator who go in the 2.10 at Tipperary and Gone Galavanting in the 2.40.

    Price update: The Mcgregornator (100-1) taken at 25-1 for 9 places and Gone Galavanting (100-1) was taken at 28-1 7 places 1/4 odds. Out Of The Blue was a non runner. Alternative options were much better on The Mcgregornator with 80-1 being available for 5 places 1/4 odds and looks a stunning bet if you are brave enough.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by adminMike.
    • This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by adminMike.
    #491
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Well I am beginning to like this thread as the only one of the three mentioned last night to run was Gone Galavanting who ran on to take third place at 100-1. The other two were both non runners and that topped the thread up nicely.
    I have one for tomorrow which is taken from the Key Race thread and is called Crimson Chief he is currently available at you guessed it 100-1 will run in the 2.05 at Galway and again will obviously be an each way shout. I will once again be looking an each way extra price in the morning.
    Update: Crimson Chief is available at (100-1) but 25-1 for 8 places and an interesting option in that race is Ballon Onabudget who is available at (100-1) but 25-1 for 9 places.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 9 months ago by adminMike.
    #493
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Well another profit on the day with Crimson Chief coming in 6th and had Ballon Onabudget not clumped three out and ended up 10th instead of the required 9th it would have been an even better day. There is not much on the horizon over the next few days and due to personal issues I may not be able to make it back on until the weekend.

    #503
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    I have a couple of interesting shouts for the 100-1 thread today both running at Punchestown the first is called Rince Deireanach who runs in the 2.05 he is available at 33-1 betting without Elysian Plains and Smiling Eliza or as a safer option 22-1 for 8 places.
    The second selection is called Allora Yeats and runs in the 3.10 is available at 28-1 betting without My Sister Sarah or once again the safer option of 25-1 for 5 places. Although for the purpose of the thread we have been using the each way extra place market and will continue to do so there is another intersting bet which is using the betting without the favourite/s option but also considering a cheeky each way double which could be also be a money spinner if you can get one home.

    #504
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Well another profit on the day with Allora Yeats not only getting the desired place but also getting third place which now means that if not only had done the selections as highlighted would you have made a profit but also if you had backed the selections as normal each way bets you would still be well ahead of the game.
    As it stands we are still over 10 points up which means we can have a punt at the football tonight and look for one of those face value 100-1 shots and I will go in the France Germany game with Paul Pogba to be booked + most goals second half + more than three corners second half (both teams combined) and France to win from behind.

    Update: France have come from behind there have been more goals in the second half than the first and there have been more than three corners in the second half. Unfortunately the ref was a tad leniant on Pogba (alright I am biased) but it was a close call.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 8 months ago by adminMike.
    #506
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    I will chance one today which is probably a mistake but Diamond Kut runs in the 2.05 at Punchestown and looked a real handful on his stable debut last time out. However he was returnng from a long break and may be the type to do a lot better this time around.
    Therefore although priced up at 100-1 the 28-1 on offer for 6 places looks a decent enough price to tempt me in.

    #508
    RobmullRobmull
    Participant

    Hi Mike,

    Congratulations, you have certainly hit a rich vein of form with your outsiders in the Extra Place market with Bet365.

    Long may this continue, albeit I feel that I must warn you that the Bookmaker in question is notoriously quick at restricting/closing down winning punters, especially when regular profits are being made through one of their special markets.

    Not only have I fallen foul of their risk adverse strategy to get rid of successful punters, but a number of my friends and family have also been heavily restricted and/or closed down despite only making modest profits.

    Anyway, I hope you can keep below the radar.

    All the best.

    Rob.

    #510
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Hi Rob
    Thanks for that it was always going to be tricky as there can be upward of twenty 100-1 shots a day and my biggest problem is that I get overconfident. Hence with Diamond Kut picking up another nice little profit I am putting up a 230-1 double tomorrow involving Crimson Chief 10-1 in the 1.35 at Tramore and Ballon Onabudget 20-1 in the 4.45 at the same meeting.
    The idea of using two horses is cheating to a degree but these are put up as an each way double so could bring that elusive (near impossible) 100 point + return but has the possibility of bringing home a return if both get placed.
    Update: Now I will confess this is becoming frustrating Crimson Chief was beaten by a head and with Ballon Onabudget winning relatively easily the 230-1 bet was a whisker away.
    In theory I should be happy as the bet produced a cracking 13 point profit for the thread and takes us into a very healthy profit of over 25 points…but…lol.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 8 months ago by adminMike.
    #522
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    As I have been either extremely lucky with this thread to date or a tad unlucky recently not to cracked the big hit I have still accumulated a tidy little profit so will have a crack at an alphabet horse today. The alphabet horse is one that is rather obvious by the the amount of letters as opposed to numbers in its form and will probably be a thread for another day..lol.
    The horse in question today runs in the 2.45 at Ffos Las is called Time For Champers is not going to win but looks worth a little punt at the 40-1 on offer for 6 places. The selection has pulled up 5 times in his last 9 runs and to boot refused to race last time out hence its 100-1 price tag however has shown herself to be more than capable when deciding to put her best foot forward.
    I will have look at at 100-1 shot in the football markets in the Bournmouth v Southampton game but will possibly post that in the Bet Builder thread later in the day.

    • This reply was modified 1 year, 8 months ago by adminMike.
    • This reply was modified 1 year, 8 months ago by adminMike.
    #529
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    Well this is not exactly turning out as I had planned but from the point of view of the Horse Racing side of the thread there have been 13 selections 2 non runners 8 returns 3 losses which when you add in todays 7 point profit from Time For Champers has edged the horse racing total to just over a 40 point profit.
    Add into this just missing out on the 230-1 double the other day and I am beginning to think I might be onto something here.

    #532
    adminMike
    Keymaster

    As the gods of racing appear to be smiling upon me at the moment with regards to this thread I will punt another ridiculous each way double today which involves two runners at Cork.
    The first is Flemen Magic who goes in the 1.50 is trading around 18-1 but is available at 11-1 betting without the odds on favourite Court Maid at 1/5 odds 3 places. The second selection is Famous Day who runs in the 2.20 is best priced 25-1 at present but I will take at 10-1 betting without both He’s No Molly and Presenting Princess at 1/4 odds 2 places.
    This gives you a 131-1 double but obviously the each way part should it come in would still be a nice little return.
    nb. Many thanks for the heads up I recieved over my mis-calculation on the previous double attempt involving Crimson Chief and Ballon Onabudget which should have read that it was a potential 230-1 double not a 122-1 as I had first posted. My apologies it was a busy week last week I have corrected the error and it is nice to know people other than the other members are reading the threads and posts.

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